let me give you an interesting piece of math.

Let's say you're playing a Pokerstars tourney - start with 1500 in chips -

now lets say you get 18 hands in approx. a level - rough estimate, and it may not always be an even 18, but let's say you do.

Let's say you steal or try to buy the blinds preflop 3 times for every two times you're the big blind. (i.e., raise and everyone folds) - this is assuming you don't get called when you have a monster and get paid off. - If you do it twice every 18 hands, you'll essentially stay even. If you try it three times, it seems insignificant.

But here's what you're gonna look like after 12 rounds or 3 hrs.

round is on the left, chip stack is on the right...I approximated for blind sizes and made them 8 handed antes in later rounds cause occasionally, you're 8 handed.

1 - 1530
2 - 1575
3 - 1650
4 - 1800
5 - 2025
6 - 2325
7 - 2850
8 - 3675
9 - 4975
10- 6575
11- 8975
12- 12775

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now, as you can see, the first hr or first 4 rounds, not too hot - avg. will be 3000, and you're not even close.

As you get to the 2nd and 3rd hrs, however, and as those blind steals represent a diminishing supply of chips in relation to the blinds and players, they mean a lot.

Average stack is about 15000 when you get to the money, and you're real close to that at the third hr. And remember, this is essentially ONE blind steal for profit and one for every time you're the BB - heck, sometimes I get those for free anyways. -

this doesn't account for every time you raise with AA and get repopped by JJ, but it also doesn't account for when you raise with A3 suited and get repopped either - hopefully they'll balance out.

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This is one of those sleepy realizations you get after 23 hrs and you just finished 5th in a satellite out of 300 -

The simple fact of the matter is that this year, for me to have good tourney results, I've needed to be inebriated a bit - I haven't made the money in a tourney since the Imperial Palace on Valentine's day, and part of that? - soberity....

but let's face facts. I'm not smarter when drinking, I'm braver - I'm not scared money (just like I'm not scared boy around women when drinking but I digress - it's liquid courage in more ways then one) -

and I've had it with finishes in the top 20% - I guess I felt that waiting for luck and getting to the top 20% somehow validated my strategy, but it really doesn't - quite frankly, I"m feeling more and more like I'd rather bust in 1 hr then in 3, and I'd rather my double ups carry me for 30 min. or two levels then having to win one every level -

so I think I'm reaching a point in my play where a light has gone on a bit - might have made the money last night in a 10 bucker, but I got it all in with 77 on a 568 board where one opponenet had 55 and the other 99 - whoops - LOL

but of course, I was slightly buzzed then too -

RB